Dormancy risk early warning

Outlets most likely to lapse over the next quarter. Sales-rep intervention list.

Low risk10,690

Moderate risk2,684

High risk2,953

Critical risk3,112

Share of outlets in each predicted dormancy-risk band.

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Currently-active outlets ranked by dormancy risk. Send a sales rep before they lapse. Classifier 5-fold CV AUC ≈ 0.88.

Outlet	Province	Distributor	Active months	Recent avg	Coolers	Risk band	Risk score
OUT_10511	Central	DIST_C_02	15	14.0 L	0	Critical	0.940
OUT_01416	Western	DIST_W_03	14	14.8 L	1	Critical	0.940
OUT_02239	Western	DIST_W_01	16	8.3 L	0	Critical	0.940
OUT_18487	Southern	DIST_S_02	12	10.5 L	0	Critical	0.940
OUT_04381	Western	DIST_W_03	8	6.8 L	1	Critical	0.940
OUT_17145	Southern	DIST_S_02	10	11.1 L	0	Critical	0.939
OUT_07449	Western	DIST_W_01	11	9.7 L	2	Critical	0.939
OUT_08349	Western	DIST_W_01	11	7.3 L	0	Critical	0.939
OUT_13885	North-Western	DIST_NW_02	14	13.9 L	0	Critical	0.939
OUT_08889	Western	DIST_W_01	12	11.2 L	1	Critical	0.939
OUT_01612	Western	DIST_W_01	11	8.7 L	0	Critical	0.939
OUT_18303	Southern	DIST_S_02	12	11.7 L	0	Critical	0.939
OUT_19783	Southern	DIST_S_02	15	12.9 L	0	Critical	0.939
OUT_10846	Central	DIST_C_02	10	14.8 L	0	Critical	0.939
OUT_00430	Western	DIST_W_02	11	13.8 L	1	Critical	0.939
OUT_08792	Western	DIST_W_01	16	14.3 L	0	Critical	0.938
OUT_17091	Southern	DIST_S_02	13	15.5 L	0	Critical	0.938
OUT_07005	Western	DIST_W_02	9	11.1 L	1	Critical	0.938
OUT_19469	Southern	DIST_S_01	13	16.2 L	0	Critical	0.938
OUT_00559	Western	DIST_W_02	9	10.7 L	0	Critical	0.938

Page 7 of 10 · 200 at-risk outlets