All outlets

OUT_00559

Bakery · Small · Western · distributor DIST_W_02

Critical

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
185.6 L
Recent monthly avg
10.7 L
Own Q90
33.4 L
Active months
9 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
8
HHI (1.5 km)
909
Replenishment friction
11.1%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +33.1 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~33.1 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Province_Western
    +13.4
  • mid_share
    +8.8
  • monthly_cv
    +5.7
  • Latitude
    +5.0
  • hhi_1500m
    +4.3

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -59.4
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -29.5
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -23.1
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -22.5
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -21.4

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 165.5 L → after 165.5 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 165.5 L → after 165.5 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 1,027

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.