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OUT_17145

Bakery · Small · Southern · distributor DIST_S_02

Critical

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
94.2 L
Recent monthly avg
11.1 L
Own Q90
27.3 L
Active months
10 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
4
HHI (1.5 km)
2,413
Replenishment friction
10.0%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +19.8 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~19.8 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    +39.9
  • Latitude
    +5.7
  • Province_Southern
    +4.6
  • super_premium_share
    +2.5
  • Distributor_ID_DIST_S_02
    +2.2

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -79.3
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -33.4
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -31.5
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -28.4
  • monthly_volume_std
    -26.3

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 98.8 L → after 98.8 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 98.8 L → after 98.8 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.