Dormancy risk early warning

Outlets most likely to lapse over the next quarter. Sales-rep intervention list.

Low risk10,690
Moderate risk2,684
High risk2,953
Critical risk3,112

Risk band distribution

Share of outlets in each predicted dormancy-risk band.

  • Low10,690(55%)
  • Moderate2,684(14%)
  • High2,953(15%)
  • Critical3,112(16%)
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Top-200 at-risk outlets

Currently-active outlets ranked by dormancy risk. Send a sales rep before they lapse. Classifier 5-fold CV AUC ≈ 0.88.

Outlet
Province
Distributor
Active months
Recent avg
Coolers
Risk band
Risk score
OUT_16720North-WesternDIST_NW_011014.4 L1Critical0.953
OUT_04323WesternDIST_W_0297.8 L0Critical0.953
OUT_10958CentralDIST_C_031311.6 L0Critical0.953
OUT_10769CentralDIST_C_0197.7 L1Critical0.952
OUT_13588North-WesternDIST_NW_011215.4 L1Critical0.952
OUT_13007North-WesternDIST_NW_011212.6 L1Critical0.952
OUT_05789WesternDIST_W_02106.0 L0Critical0.951
OUT_16574North-WesternDIST_NW_021111.6 L1Critical0.951
OUT_16002North-WesternDIST_NW_01119.1 L0Critical0.951
OUT_02720WesternDIST_W_011310.5 L0Critical0.951
OUT_17695SouthernDIST_S_011213.0 L0Critical0.951
OUT_19782SouthernDIST_S_021010.1 L1Critical0.951
OUT_12231CentralDIST_C_021013.6 L0Critical0.951
OUT_05172WesternDIST_W_02118.0 L0Critical0.951
OUT_12221CentralDIST_C_02119.6 L0Critical0.950
OUT_06078WesternDIST_W_031210.9 L0Critical0.950
OUT_17376SouthernDIST_S_011312.8 L1Critical0.949
OUT_17666SouthernDIST_S_021313.7 L1Critical0.949
OUT_08548WesternDIST_W_021313.2 L0Critical0.949
OUT_14407North-WesternDIST_NW_0199.9 L0Critical0.948
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