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OUT_05789

Eatery · Small · Western · distributor DIST_W_02

Critical

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
134.1 L
Recent monthly avg
6.0 L
Own Q90
17.0 L
Active months
10 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
17
HHI (1.5 km)
900
Replenishment friction
30.0%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +22.9 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~22.9 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Province_Western
    +12.5
  • monthly_cv
    +6.0
  • Latitude
    +5.6
  • spatial_demand_score
    +3.4
  • hhi_1500m
    +2.4

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -62.3
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.5
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -24.9
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -21.7
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -21.6

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 114.3 L → after 114.3 L
Remove competitive drag+0.1 L / mo
base 114.3 L → after 114.4 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 472

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.