OUT_17376
Bakery · Small · Southern · distributor DIST_S_01
Predicted potential
January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.
Geographical Location
Store location on the map.
Recommended actions
Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.
- Rank 1 · festival_promo+19.2 L / mo
Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak
Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~19.2 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.
- Rank 2 · cooler+10.3 L / mo
Add 2th cooler to outlet
Counterfactual model predicts +10.3 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.
- Rank 3 · sku_mix+4.9 L / mo
Shift SKU mix toward premium (stock 1-2 additional premium SKUs)
Outlet currently sells 4.2% premium SKUs vs top-performing peers in the same cohort at 12.7%. Closing this gap typically lifts volume by ~4.9 L/month.
Top reasons the score is high
Largest positive SHAP contributors.
- climate_jan_humid_pct+39.6
- Latitude+5.8
- Province_Southern+4.7
- monthly_cv+2.9
- Longitude+1.3
Top reasons the score is held back
Largest negative SHAP contributors.
- monthly_volume_mean-79.1
- Outlet_Size_Extra Large-32.8
- monthly_volume_q95-30.6
- Outlet_Size_Small-27.6
- monthly_volume_std-26.0
What-if scenarios
Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.
Cooler deployment business case
Assumes LKR 50,000 unit cost, 12% gross margin, 12% cost of capital.
AI explanation
A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.
Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.