All outlets

OUT_02720

Bakery · Small · Western · distributor DIST_W_01

Critical

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
79.6 L
Recent monthly avg
10.5 L
Own Q90
31.6 L
Active months
13 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
23
HHI (1.5 km)
1,082
Replenishment friction
23.1%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +23.4 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~23.4 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · merchandising

    Deploy prime-shelf branded merchandising (posters, shelf-talkers)

    +0.8 L / mo

    Outlet faces type-weighted competition pressure of 18.5 from nearby same-type stores. Targeted in-store branded visibility recovers an estimated 0.8 L/month of intercepted traffic.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Province_Western
    +13.6
  • monthly_cv
    +3.1
  • Outlet_Type_SMMT
    +2.9
  • spatial_demand_score
    +2.5
  • Outlet_Type_Hotel
    +2.2

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -61.9
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -29.8
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -25.2
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -21.8
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -21.5

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 117.1 L → after 117.1 L
Remove competitive drag+2.0 L / mo
base 117.1 L → after 119.1 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 125

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.