Dormancy risk early warning

Outlets most likely to lapse over the next quarter. Sales-rep intervention list.

Low risk10,690

Moderate risk2,684

High risk2,953

Critical risk3,112

Share of outlets in each predicted dormancy-risk band.

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Currently-active outlets ranked by dormancy risk. Send a sales rep before they lapse. Classifier 5-fold CV AUC ≈ 0.88.

Outlet	Province	Distributor	Active months	Recent avg	Coolers	Risk band	Risk score
OUT_14744	North-Western	DIST_NW_01	12	13.2 L	1	Critical	0.946
OUT_19883	Southern	DIST_S_02	12	14.9 L	0	Critical	0.946
OUT_03612	Western	DIST_W_03	10	15.6 L	0	Critical	0.946
OUT_12968	Central	DIST_C_03	10	12.6 L	1	Critical	0.946
OUT_11756	Central	DIST_C_02	11	13.8 L	0	Critical	0.946
OUT_11065	Central	DIST_C_03	12	13.5 L	0	Critical	0.946
OUT_18327	Southern	DIST_S_01	13	13.5 L	0	Critical	0.945
OUT_08707	Western	DIST_W_02	10	11.5 L	1	Critical	0.945
OUT_00961	Western	DIST_W_02	11	9.6 L	1	Critical	0.945
OUT_19621	Southern	DIST_S_02	9	10.7 L	1	Critical	0.945
OUT_07805	Western	DIST_W_01	10	12.6 L	0	Critical	0.945
OUT_17043	Southern	DIST_S_02	11	7.7 L	1	Critical	0.944
OUT_10897	Central	DIST_C_03	11	13.7 L	0	Critical	0.944
OUT_13571	North-Western	DIST_NW_02	12	14.0 L	0	Critical	0.944
OUT_17169	Southern	DIST_S_01	12	13.2 L	0	Critical	0.944
OUT_18116	Southern	DIST_S_02	12	12.1 L	0	Critical	0.944
OUT_05865	Western	DIST_W_01	11	8.7 L	0	Critical	0.944
OUT_17022	Southern	DIST_S_01	13	12.3 L	0	Critical	0.944
OUT_18588	Southern	DIST_S_02	11	9.0 L	0	Critical	0.944
OUT_14256	North-Western	DIST_NW_01	14	13.5 L	0	Critical	0.944

Page 5 of 10 · 200 at-risk outlets