Dormancy risk early warning

Outlets most likely to lapse over the next quarter. Sales-rep intervention list.

Low risk10,690

Moderate risk2,684

High risk2,953

Critical risk3,112

Share of outlets in each predicted dormancy-risk band.

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Currently-active outlets ranked by dormancy risk. Send a sales rep before they lapse. Classifier 5-fold CV AUC ≈ 0.88.

Outlet	Province	Distributor	Active months	Recent avg	Coolers	Risk band	Risk score
OUT_11748	Central	DIST_C_02	11	14.2 L	1	Critical	0.948
OUT_08197	Western	DIST_W_03	12	10.7 L	0	Critical	0.948
OUT_11758	Central	DIST_C_02	10	11.0 L	1	Critical	0.948
OUT_06031	Western	DIST_W_01	11	8.4 L	0	Critical	0.948
OUT_02035	Western	DIST_W_01	11	12.6 L	0	Critical	0.948
OUT_09426	Central	DIST_C_02	10	13.7 L	1	Critical	0.947
OUT_01673	Western	DIST_W_02	12	12.8 L	1	Critical	0.947
OUT_13420	North-Western	DIST_NW_02	10	7.1 L	0	Critical	0.947
OUT_14769	North-Western	DIST_NW_01	11	15.5 L	0	Critical	0.947
OUT_10497	Central	DIST_C_02	11	9.7 L	0	Critical	0.947
OUT_13803	North-Western	DIST_NW_01	14	11.6 L	3	Critical	0.947
OUT_10257	Central	DIST_C_03	11	11.7 L	0	Critical	0.947
OUT_14717	North-Western	DIST_NW_02	13	13.9 L	1	Critical	0.947
OUT_09904	Central	DIST_C_01	11	7.0 L	1	Critical	0.946
OUT_12114	Central	DIST_C_02	9	14.0 L	1	Critical	0.946
OUT_06959	Western	DIST_W_03	16	11.2 L	0	Critical	0.946
OUT_13615	North-Western	DIST_NW_01	10	11.5 L	0	Critical	0.946
OUT_01343	Western	DIST_W_01	13	14.0 L	1	Critical	0.946
OUT_12404	Central	DIST_C_02	14	10.8 L	0	Critical	0.946
OUT_00520	Western	DIST_W_03	11	7.9 L	1	Critical	0.946

Page 4 of 10 · 200 at-risk outlets