All outlets

OUT_10257

Bakery · Small · Central · distributor DIST_C_03

Critical

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
64.2 L
Recent monthly avg
11.7 L
Own Q90
45.5 L
Active months
11 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
6
HHI (1.5 km)
4,280
Replenishment friction
9.1%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +13.7 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~13.7 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · cooler

    Place first cooler at outlet

    +0.5 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +0.5 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Type_Bakery
    +2.4
  • monthly_cv
    +2.3
  • spatial_demand_score
    +1.0
  • footfall_score_norm
    +0.9
  • Outlet_Type_SMMT
    +0.8

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -63.3
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.2
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -24.8
  • monthly_volume_std
    -23.9
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -23.6

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+0.5 L / mo
base 68.5 L → after 68.9 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 68.5 L → after 68.5 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.