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OUT_01343

Bakery · Small · Western · distributor DIST_W_01

Critical

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
192.2 L
Recent monthly avg
14.0 L
Own Q90
45.8 L
Active months
13 / 36
Coolers
1
Local competitors (1 km)
27
HHI (1.5 km)
612
Replenishment friction
23.1%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +36.7 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~36.7 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Province_Western
    +13.5
  • Outlet_Type_Bakery
    +8.6
  • super_premium_share
    +7.7
  • competitors_1km
    +7.4
  • same_type_competitors_1km
    +6.2

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -62.7
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.7
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -24.8
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -21.5
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -20.0

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 183.5 L → after 183.5 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 183.5 L → after 183.5 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 507

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.