Dormancy risk early warning

Outlets most likely to lapse over the next quarter. Sales-rep intervention list.

Low risk10,690

Moderate risk2,684

High risk2,953

Critical risk3,112

Share of outlets in each predicted dormancy-risk band.

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Currently-active outlets ranked by dormancy risk. Send a sales rep before they lapse. Classifier 5-fold CV AUC ≈ 0.88.

Outlet	Province	Distributor	Active months	Recent avg	Coolers	Risk band	Risk score
OUT_01365	Western	DIST_W_03	12	15.6 L	0	Critical	0.943
OUT_03527	Western	DIST_W_03	12	12.0 L	1	Critical	0.943
OUT_17444	Southern	DIST_S_01	9	12.7 L	0	Critical	0.943
OUT_18097	Southern	DIST_S_02	12	12.7 L	0	Critical	0.943
OUT_05013	Western	DIST_W_03	13	12.9 L	0	Critical	0.943
OUT_15590	North-Western	DIST_NW_02	11	10.9 L	0	Critical	0.942
OUT_09049	Central	DIST_C_01	10	10.7 L	0	Critical	0.942
OUT_05380	Western	DIST_W_01	13	10.4 L	0	Critical	0.942
OUT_16948	North-Western	DIST_NW_01	14	14.7 L	1	Critical	0.942
OUT_11116	Central	DIST_C_03	9	15.6 L	0	Critical	0.942
OUT_05368	Western	DIST_W_02	12	13.2 L	0	Critical	0.942
OUT_08955	Western	DIST_W_02	12	10.4 L	1	Critical	0.942
OUT_12711	Central	DIST_C_01	7	6.4 L	1	Critical	0.941
OUT_05006	Western	DIST_W_02	8	6.7 L	0	Critical	0.941
OUT_02294	Western	DIST_W_03	9	13.0 L	0	Critical	0.941
OUT_16148	North-Western	DIST_NW_02	11	11.1 L	0	Critical	0.941
OUT_04421	Western	DIST_W_02	14	9.4 L	0	Critical	0.940
OUT_02400	Western	DIST_W_03	9	7.5 L	1	Critical	0.940
OUT_15631	North-Western	DIST_NW_01	10	11.2 L	1	Critical	0.940
OUT_07983	Western	DIST_W_02	12	14.6 L	2	Critical	0.940

Page 6 of 10 · 200 at-risk outlets