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OUT_05380

Eatery · Small · Western · distributor DIST_W_01

Critical

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
145.9 L
Recent monthly avg
10.4 L
Own Q90
31.8 L
Active months
13 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
25
HHI (1.5 km)
991
Replenishment friction
23.1%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +23.7 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~23.7 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · cooler

    Place first cooler at outlet

    +0.2 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +0.2 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Province_Western
    +12.9
  • type_weighted_pressure
    +5.0
  • monthly_cv
    +4.9
  • competitors_1km
    +4.2
  • Distributor_ID_DIST_W_01
    +3.0

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -63.1
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -29.0
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -25.7
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -21.9
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -21.4

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+0.2 L / mo
base 118.7 L → after 118.9 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 118.7 L → after 118.7 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 470

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.