All outlets

OUT_17444

Grocery · Small · Southern · distributor DIST_S_01

Critical

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
115.1 L
Recent monthly avg
12.7 L
Own Q90
49.9 L
Active months
9 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
8
HHI (1.5 km)
3,321
Replenishment friction
22.2%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +22.1 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~22.1 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    +39.7
  • Latitude
    +6.1
  • mid_share
    +5.3
  • Province_Southern
    +4.6
  • Outlet_Type_Grocery
    +2.8

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -79.1
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -33.2
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -30.1
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -28.6
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -24.6

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 110.4 L → after 110.4 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 110.4 L → after 110.4 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.