Dormancy risk early warning

Outlets most likely to lapse over the next quarter. Sales-rep intervention list.

Low risk10,690

Moderate risk2,684

High risk2,953

Critical risk3,112

Share of outlets in each predicted dormancy-risk band.

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Currently-active outlets ranked by dormancy risk. Send a sales rep before they lapse. Classifier 5-fold CV AUC ≈ 0.88.

Outlet	Province	Distributor	Active months	Recent avg	Coolers	Risk band	Risk score
OUT_12617	Central	DIST_C_03	7	9.9 L	0	Critical	0.976
OUT_11744	Central	DIST_C_03	13	10.0 L	1	Critical	0.976
OUT_10643	Central	DIST_C_03	13	12.9 L	0	Critical	0.972
OUT_15761	North-Western	DIST_NW_01	11	8.7 L	0	Critical	0.968
OUT_19157	Southern	DIST_S_01	10	10.6 L	0	Critical	0.968
OUT_04265	Western	DIST_W_01	8	10.2 L	0	Critical	0.967
OUT_02805	Western	DIST_W_03	10	13.5 L	0	Critical	0.965
OUT_02093	Western	DIST_W_01	8	6.5 L	1	Critical	0.964
OUT_02825	Western	DIST_W_01	10	10.4 L	0	Critical	0.964
OUT_13014	North-Western	DIST_NW_02	11	13.0 L	0	Critical	0.964
OUT_18534	Southern	DIST_S_01	9	10.3 L	0	Critical	0.962
OUT_05964	Western	DIST_W_01	9	9.3 L	1	Critical	0.962
OUT_14130	North-Western	DIST_NW_02	12	12.7 L	0	Critical	0.961
OUT_11470	Central	DIST_C_01	10	10.0 L	0	Critical	0.961
OUT_00701	Western	DIST_W_02	12	13.1 L	0	Critical	0.961
OUT_14740	North-Western	DIST_NW_02	11	13.7 L	0	Critical	0.960
OUT_18847	Southern	DIST_S_02	10	10.3 L	0	Critical	0.960
OUT_07964	Western	DIST_W_01	9	6.5 L	0	Critical	0.959
OUT_10371	Central	DIST_C_02	12	9.9 L	1	Critical	0.959
OUT_08136	Western	DIST_W_01	9	9.6 L	0	Critical	0.959

Page 1 of 10 · 200 at-risk outlets