All outlets

OUT_04265

Grocery · Small · Western · distributor DIST_W_01

Critical

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
96.9 L
Recent monthly avg
10.2 L
Own Q90
44.3 L
Active months
8 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
20
HHI (1.5 km)
907
Replenishment friction
25.0%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +21.3 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~21.3 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · merchandising

    Deploy prime-shelf branded merchandising (posters, shelf-talkers)

    +0.4 L / mo

    Outlet faces type-weighted competition pressure of 23.7 from nearby same-type stores. Targeted in-store branded visibility recovers an estimated 0.4 L/month of intercepted traffic.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Province_Western
    +15.0
  • mid_share
    +4.1
  • monthly_cv
    +3.3
  • spatial_demand_score
    +3.1
  • Outlet_Type_SMMT
    +2.8

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -62.2
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -29.8
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -25.1
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -23.4
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -23.0

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 106.5 L → after 106.5 L
Remove competitive drag+1.0 L / mo
base 106.5 L → after 107.6 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 207

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.