Dormancy risk early warning

Outlets most likely to lapse over the next quarter. Sales-rep intervention list.

Low risk10,690

Moderate risk2,684

High risk2,953

Critical risk3,112

Share of outlets in each predicted dormancy-risk band.

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Currently-active outlets ranked by dormancy risk. Send a sales rep before they lapse. Classifier 5-fold CV AUC ≈ 0.88.

Outlet	Province	Distributor	Active months	Recent avg	Coolers	Risk band	Risk score
OUT_02868	Western	DIST_W_01	10	9.0 L	1	Critical	0.934
OUT_03512	Western	DIST_W_03	12	12.2 L	0	Critical	0.934
OUT_14692	North-Western	DIST_NW_02	12	9.6 L	0	Critical	0.934
OUT_13219	North-Western	DIST_NW_01	12	12.2 L	0	Critical	0.934
OUT_16666	North-Western	DIST_NW_01	13	10.4 L	0	Critical	0.933
OUT_01684	Western	DIST_W_01	13	13.8 L	0	Critical	0.933
OUT_11320	Central	DIST_C_03	12	8.4 L	1	Critical	0.933
OUT_02503	Western	DIST_W_01	11	9.9 L	1	Critical	0.933
OUT_09709	Central	DIST_C_03	13	11.1 L	1	Critical	0.933
OUT_15785	North-Western	DIST_NW_01	13	7.4 L	0	Critical	0.933
OUT_09364	Central	DIST_C_03	10	7.6 L	0	Critical	0.933
OUT_10703	Central	DIST_C_01	11	12.7 L	0	Critical	0.933
OUT_17455	Southern	DIST_S_02	11	14.3 L	0	Critical	0.933
OUT_04372	Western	DIST_W_01	11	12.0 L	0	Critical	0.932
OUT_04058	Western	DIST_W_03	11	8.2 L	0	Critical	0.932
OUT_09488	Central	DIST_C_03	12	14.3 L	0	Critical	0.932
OUT_17040	Southern	DIST_S_01	15	14.0 L	1	Critical	0.932
OUT_19596	Southern	DIST_S_01	14	12.0 L	0	Critical	0.932
OUT_11654	Central	DIST_C_03	12	15.7 L	0	Critical	0.932
OUT_02175	Western	DIST_W_01	10	15.3 L	0	Critical	0.931

Page 9 of 10 · 200 at-risk outlets