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OUT_02503

SMMT · Small · Western · distributor DIST_W_01

Critical

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
83.5 L
Recent monthly avg
9.9 L
Own Q90
37.4 L
Active months
11 / 36
Coolers
1
Local competitors (1 km)
10
HHI (1.5 km)
1,264
Replenishment friction
0.0%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +18.6 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~18.6 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Province_Western
    +7.5
  • mid_share
    +3.2
  • Longitude
    +2.9
  • Distributor_ID_DIST_W_01
    +2.6
  • monthly_cv
    +2.5

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -60.6
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -30.0
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -25.9
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -24.8
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -23.8

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 92.9 L → after 92.9 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 92.9 L → after 92.9 L
LKR allocated for Jan 2026: LKR 113

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.