Dormancy risk early warning

Outlets most likely to lapse over the next quarter. Sales-rep intervention list.

Low risk10,690

Moderate risk2,684

High risk2,953

Critical risk3,112

Share of outlets in each predicted dormancy-risk band.

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Currently-active outlets ranked by dormancy risk. Send a sales rep before they lapse. Classifier 5-fold CV AUC ≈ 0.88.

Outlet	Province	Distributor	Active months	Recent avg	Coolers	Risk band	Risk score
OUT_10751	Central	DIST_C_02	13	15.0 L	0	Critical	0.938
OUT_00708	Western	DIST_W_03	12	8.8 L	1	Critical	0.938
OUT_15844	North-Western	DIST_NW_01	12	12.0 L	0	Critical	0.937
OUT_11501	Central	DIST_C_02	10	8.7 L	3	Critical	0.937
OUT_19763	Southern	DIST_S_02	10	9.2 L	0	Critical	0.937
OUT_11835	Central	DIST_C_03	13	10.2 L	0	Critical	0.937
OUT_10853	Central	DIST_C_01	12	14.0 L	1	Critical	0.937
OUT_02848	Western	DIST_W_03	10	10.1 L	0	Critical	0.936
OUT_10602	Central	DIST_C_03	14	14.2 L	1	Critical	0.936
OUT_06108	Western	DIST_W_03	11	16.2 L	0	Critical	0.936
OUT_10698	Central	DIST_C_02	11	13.7 L	1	Critical	0.936
OUT_12988	Central	DIST_C_01	12	14.6 L	0	Critical	0.936
OUT_10741	Central	DIST_C_03	10	8.7 L	1	Critical	0.935
OUT_17919	Southern	DIST_S_01	11	13.2 L	0	Critical	0.935
OUT_01787	Western	DIST_W_01	15	11.9 L	0	Critical	0.935
OUT_02413	Western	DIST_W_01	12	8.9 L	1	Critical	0.935
OUT_13643	North-Western	DIST_NW_01	10	16.2 L	0	Critical	0.935
OUT_04379	Western	DIST_W_01	11	13.3 L	1	Critical	0.935
OUT_09325	Central	DIST_C_01	9	9.5 L	0	Critical	0.935
OUT_04965	Western	DIST_W_02	12	11.1 L	0	Critical	0.934

Page 8 of 10 · 200 at-risk outlets