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OUT_19805

Eatery · Large · Southern · distributor DIST_S_02

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
1,029.5 L
Recent monthly avg
482.7 L
Own Q90
801.2 L
Active months
33 / 36
Coolers
2
Local competitors (1 km)
9
HHI (1.5 km)
1,602
Replenishment friction
9.1%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +199.0 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~199.0 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    +314.7
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    +138.7
  • monthly_volume_q95
    +82.5
  • monthly_volume_std
    +78.6
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    +76.0

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -136.6
  • mid_share
    -4.1
  • Province_Western
    -3.3
  • avg_price_per_liter
    -2.6
  • Outlet_Size_Medium
    -2.6

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 994.9 L → after 994.9 L
Remove competitive drag+0.7 L / mo
base 994.9 L → after 995.6 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.