OUT_19504
Bakery · Medium · Southern · distributor DIST_S_01
Predicted potential
January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.
Geographical Location
Store location on the map.
Recommended actions
Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.
- Rank 1 · cooler+462.9 L / mo
Add 3th cooler to outlet
Counterfactual model predicts +462.9 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.
- Rank 2 · festival_promo+49.4 L / mo
Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak
Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~49.4 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.
- Rank 3 · sku_mix+10.3 L / mo
Shift SKU mix toward premium (stock 1-2 additional premium SKUs)
Outlet currently sells 8.0% premium SKUs vs top-performing peers in the same cohort at 14.9%. Closing this gap typically lifts volume by ~10.3 L/month.
Top reasons the score is high
Largest positive SHAP contributors.
- climate_jan_humid_pct+54.1
- Outlet_Size_Small+39.2
- Outlet_Size_Medium+20.8
- Province_Southern+6.9
- Latitude+6.1
Top reasons the score is held back
Largest negative SHAP contributors.
- monthly_volume_mean-75.6
- Outlet_Size_Extra Large-32.3
- monthly_volume_q95-31.9
- Outlet_Size_Large-24.0
- monthly_volume_std-21.7
What-if scenarios
Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.
Cooler deployment business case
Assumes LKR 50,000 unit cost, 12% gross margin, 12% cost of capital.
AI explanation
A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.
Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.