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OUT_19485

Bakery · Extra Large · Southern · distributor DIST_S_02

High

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
2,030.5 L
Recent monthly avg
18.1 L
Own Q90
64.6 L
Active months
17 / 36
Coolers
5
Local competitors (1 km)
9
HHI (1.5 km)
2,226
Replenishment friction
17.6%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +398.1 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~398.1 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Cooler_Count
    +859.9
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    +602.1
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    +184.3
  • Latitude
    +42.3
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +34.1

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -63.6
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -17.5
  • monthly_volume_median
    -17.0
  • monthly_volume_std
    -16.3
  • Province_Western
    -3.8

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 1,990.3 L → after 1,990.3 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 1,990.3 L → after 1,990.3 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.