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OUT_19216

Grocery · Medium · Southern · distributor DIST_S_01

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
259.0 L
Recent monthly avg
106.2 L
Own Q90
209.9 L
Active months
32 / 36
Coolers
2
Local competitors (1 km)
5
HHI (1.5 km)
1,880
Replenishment friction
9.4%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · cooler

    Add 3th cooler to outlet

    +410.0 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +410.0 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

  2. Rank 2 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +51.0 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~51.0 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    +53.3
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +36.7
  • Outlet_Size_Medium
    +19.8
  • Province_Southern
    +7.1
  • Latitude
    +5.5

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -74.0
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -32.2
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -22.2
  • monthly_volume_median
    -20.6
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -16.8

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+410.0 L / mo
base 254.8 L → after 664.7 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 254.8 L → after 254.8 L

Cooler deployment business case

Assumes LKR 50,000 unit cost, 12% gross margin, 12% cost of capital.

Monthly uplift
410.0 L
Monthly margin
LKR 14,477
Payback
3.5 mo
24-mo NPV
LKR 259,420

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.