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OUT_18934

Bakery · Extra Large · Southern · distributor DIST_S_02

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
2,369.7 L
Recent monthly avg
1,237.6 L
Own Q90
1,860.7 L
Active months
33 / 36
Coolers
3
Local competitors (1 km)
6
HHI (1.5 km)
2,995
Replenishment friction
6.1%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +472.8 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~472.8 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    +774.9
  • monthly_volume_mean
    +418.7
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    +275.8
  • Cooler_Count
    +188.4
  • monthly_volume_median
    +130.8

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -28.3
  • Outlet_Type_Bakery
    -4.1
  • Province_Western
    -3.8
  • avg_price_per_liter
    -2.2
  • mid_share
    -2.1

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 2,364.0 L → after 2,364.0 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 2,364.0 L → after 2,364.0 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.