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OUT_18881

Hotel · Small · Southern · distributor DIST_S_02

Critical

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
87.5 L
Recent monthly avg
8.0 L
Own Q90
22.0 L
Active months
12 / 36
Coolers
1
Local competitors (1 km)
6
HHI (1.5 km)
2,769
Replenishment friction
16.7%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +17.8 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~17.8 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · cooler

    Add 2th cooler to outlet

    +10.3 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +10.3 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    +39.4
  • Latitude
    +6.0
  • Province_Southern
    +4.7
  • Distributor_ID_DIST_S_02
    +2.2
  • monthly_cv
    +2.1

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -78.8
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -33.0
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -32.1
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -27.5
  • monthly_volume_std
    -27.0

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+10.3 L / mo
base 88.8 L → after 99.1 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 88.8 L → after 88.8 L

Cooler deployment business case

Assumes LKR 50,000 unit cost, 12% gross margin, 12% cost of capital.

Monthly uplift
10.3 L
Monthly margin
LKR 409
Payback
122.3 mo
24-mo NPV
LKR -41,264

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.