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OUT_18724

Eatery · Small · Southern · distributor DIST_S_02

High

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
87.8 L
Recent monthly avg
14.4 L
Own Q90
40.8 L
Active months
16 / 36
Coolers
1
Local competitors (1 km)
3
HHI (1.5 km)
4,749
Replenishment friction
31.3%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +18.1 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~18.1 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · cooler

    Add 2th cooler to outlet

    +10.3 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +10.3 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    +39.2
  • Latitude
    +5.8
  • Province_Southern
    +4.7
  • Distributor_ID_DIST_S_02
    +1.9
  • type_weighted_pressure
    +1.3

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -78.7
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -32.6
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -30.6
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -28.0
  • monthly_volume_std
    -26.1

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+10.3 L / mo
base 90.3 L → after 100.6 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 90.3 L → after 90.3 L

Cooler deployment business case

Assumes LKR 50,000 unit cost, 12% gross margin, 12% cost of capital.

Monthly uplift
10.3 L
Monthly margin
LKR 443
Payback
112.9 mo
24-mo NPV
LKR -40,537

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.