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OUT_18715

Bakery · Large · Southern · distributor DIST_S_01

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
948.8 L
Recent monthly avg
432.7 L
Own Q90
848.7 L
Active months
28 / 36
Coolers
5
Local competitors (1 km)
7
HHI (1.5 km)
3,161
Replenishment friction
21.4%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +195.5 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~195.4 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Cooler_Count
    +310.8
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    +147.4
  • monthly_volume_mean
    +94.5
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    +71.5
  • monthly_volume_q95
    +68.1

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -142.9
  • mid_share
    -3.9
  • Province_Western
    -3.2
  • Outlet_Type_Bakery
    -1.2
  • competitors_1km
    -1.1

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 977.2 L → after 977.2 L
Remove competitive drag+0.7 L / mo
base 977.2 L → after 977.9 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.