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OUT_18513

Pharmacy · Small · Southern · distributor DIST_S_02

High

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
89.3 L
Recent monthly avg
17.2 L
Own Q90
48.0 L
Active months
17 / 36
Coolers
1
Local competitors (1 km)
3
HHI (1.5 km)
3,529
Replenishment friction
35.3%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +18.5 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~18.5 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · cooler

    Add 2th cooler to outlet

    +10.3 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +10.3 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    +39.2
  • Latitude
    +6.0
  • Province_Southern
    +4.6
  • Distributor_ID_DIST_S_02
    +2.2
  • Outlet_Type_Pharmacy
    +1.8

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -78.5
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -32.0
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -30.9
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -28.2
  • monthly_volume_std
    -25.8

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+10.3 L / mo
base 92.4 L → after 102.7 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 92.4 L → after 92.4 L

Cooler deployment business case

Assumes LKR 50,000 unit cost, 12% gross margin, 12% cost of capital.

Monthly uplift
10.3 L
Monthly margin
LKR 386
Payback
129.4 mo
24-mo NPV
LKR -41,742

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.