All outlets

OUT_18409

Bakery · Medium · Southern · distributor DIST_S_02

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
258.9 L
Recent monthly avg
90.8 L
Own Q90
178.9 L
Active months
26 / 36
Coolers
1
Local competitors (1 km)
6
HHI (1.5 km)
1,826
Replenishment friction
11.5%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +50.8 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~50.7 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    +56.4
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +36.7
  • Outlet_Size_Medium
    +19.8
  • Province_Southern
    +8.0
  • Latitude
    +5.6

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -71.0
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -32.2
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -23.6
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -22.1
  • monthly_volume_median
    -21.0

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 253.7 L → after 253.7 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 253.7 L → after 253.7 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.