All outlets

OUT_17967

Bakery · Large · Southern · distributor DIST_S_02

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
1,072.1 L
Recent monthly avg
462.4 L
Own Q90
826.7 L
Active months
28 / 36
Coolers
2
Local competitors (1 km)
3
HHI (1.5 km)
9,480
Replenishment friction
7.1%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +207.4 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~207.3 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    +316.1
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    +135.1
  • monthly_volume_q95
    +90.9
  • monthly_volume_std
    +87.5
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    +78.9

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -133.6
  • Province_Western
    -3.6
  • Outlet_Size_Medium
    -2.7
  • Outlet_Type_Bakery
    -1.5
  • hhi_1500m
    -1.2

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 1,036.7 L → after 1,036.7 L
Remove competitive drag+1.1 L / mo
base 1,036.7 L → after 1,037.9 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.