All outlets

OUT_17764

Bakery · Medium · Southern · distributor DIST_S_01

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
269.3 L
Recent monthly avg
98.2 L
Own Q90
215.8 L
Active months
24 / 36
Coolers
1
Local competitors (1 km)
4
HHI (1.5 km)
5,200
Replenishment friction
25.0%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +52.9 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~52.9 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    +53.3
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +37.7
  • Outlet_Size_Medium
    +21.3
  • Province_Southern
    +7.6
  • Latitude
    +5.7

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -70.4
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -32.1
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -22.5
  • monthly_volume_median
    -20.7
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -17.3

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 264.6 L → after 264.6 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 264.6 L → after 264.6 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.