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OUT_17547

Bakery · Small · Southern · distributor DIST_S_01

High

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
85.8 L
Recent monthly avg
10.4 L
Own Q90
30.4 L
Active months
15 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
7
HHI (1.5 km)
3,045
Replenishment friction
53.3%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +16.7 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~16.6 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    +39.1
  • Latitude
    +5.4
  • Province_Southern
    +4.7
  • Outlet_Type_SMMT
    +0.8
  • climate_jan_temp_c
    +0.8

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -79.1
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -32.8
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -31.3
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -27.3
  • monthly_volume_std
    -25.6

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 83.2 L → after 83.2 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 83.2 L → after 83.2 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.