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OUT_17526

Grocery · Medium · Southern · distributor DIST_S_02

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
277.1 L
Recent monthly avg
117.4 L
Own Q90
234.0 L
Active months
29 / 36
Coolers
2
Local competitors (1 km)
3
HHI (1.5 km)
2,326
Replenishment friction
24.1%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · cooler

    Add 3th cooler to outlet

    +414.8 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +414.8 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

  2. Rank 2 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +54.9 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~54.8 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    +53.6
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +38.7
  • Outlet_Size_Medium
    +20.6
  • Province_Southern
    +7.7
  • Latitude
    +5.9

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -74.4
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -32.8
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -23.0
  • monthly_volume_median
    -20.6
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -18.1

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+414.8 L / mo
base 274.2 L → after 689.0 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 274.2 L → after 274.2 L

Cooler deployment business case

Assumes LKR 50,000 unit cost, 12% gross margin, 12% cost of capital.

Monthly uplift
414.8 L
Monthly margin
LKR 12,857
Payback
3.9 mo
24-mo NPV
LKR 224,804

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.