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OUT_17326

Bakery · Extra Large · Southern · distributor DIST_S_01

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
2,244.4 L
Recent monthly avg
1,357.8 L
Own Q90
1,934.9 L
Active months
35 / 36
Coolers
5
Local competitors (1 km)
2
HHI (1.5 km)
4,160
Replenishment friction
0.0%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +454.2 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~454.2 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    +765.3
  • Cooler_Count
    +344.6
  • monthly_volume_mean
    +292.8
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    +262.7
  • monthly_volume_median
    +129.7

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -28.9
  • Outlet_Type_Bakery
    -10.0
  • jan_mean
    -7.8
  • super_premium_share
    -5.1
  • Province_Western
    -4.6

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 2,270.9 L → after 2,270.9 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 2,270.9 L → after 2,270.9 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.