All outlets

OUT_17192

Bakery · Large · Southern · distributor DIST_S_02

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
960.7 L
Recent monthly avg
437.0 L
Own Q90
713.4 L
Active months
30 / 36
Coolers
5
Local competitors (1 km)
6
HHI (1.5 km)
4,183
Replenishment friction
6.7%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +199.4 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~199.4 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · merchandising

    Deploy prime-shelf branded merchandising (posters, shelf-talkers)

    +0.5 L / mo

    Outlet faces type-weighted competition pressure of 5.7 from nearby same-type stores. Targeted in-store branded visibility recovers an estimated 0.5 L/month of intercepted traffic.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Cooler_Count
    +311.2
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    +155.2
  • monthly_volume_mean
    +93.9
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    +73.0
  • monthly_volume_q95
    +66.6

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -144.4
  • Province_Western
    -3.5
  • Outlet_Type_Bakery
    -1.7
  • jan_mean
    -1.6
  • monthly_cv
    -1.0

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 997.1 L → after 997.1 L
Remove competitive drag+1.1 L / mo
base 997.1 L → after 998.3 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.