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OUT_17101

Kiosk · Large · Southern · distributor DIST_S_01

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
969.5 L
Recent monthly avg
355.5 L
Own Q90
738.8 L
Active months
26 / 36
Coolers
2
Local competitors (1 km)
6
HHI (1.5 km)
2,697
Replenishment friction
26.9%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +184.8 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~184.8 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · cooler

    Add 3th cooler to outlet

    +29.9 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +29.9 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    +247.2
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    +123.4
  • monthly_volume_std
    +83.7
  • monthly_volume_q95
    +81.9
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    +73.5

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -121.7
  • Outlet_Type_Kiosk
    -3.8
  • Province_Western
    -3.7
  • super_premium_share
    -3.2
  • avg_price_per_liter
    -2.8

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+29.9 L / mo
base 924.1 L → after 954.0 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 924.1 L → after 924.1 L

Cooler deployment business case

Assumes LKR 50,000 unit cost, 12% gross margin, 12% cost of capital.

Monthly uplift
29.9 L
Monthly margin
LKR 1,028
Payback
48.6 mo
24-mo NPV
LKR -28,031

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.