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OUT_17067

Bakery · Extra Large · Southern · distributor DIST_S_02

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
2,310.0 L
Recent monthly avg
1,267.6 L
Own Q90
1,925.5 L
Active months
32 / 36
Coolers
4
Local competitors (1 km)
10
HHI (1.5 km)
1,746
Replenishment friction
9.4%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +461.6 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~461.6 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    +763.4
  • monthly_volume_mean
    +417.4
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    +254.9
  • Cooler_Count
    +187.3
  • monthly_volume_median
    +128.3

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -29.2
  • competitors_1km
    -11.6
  • type_weighted_pressure
    -5.8
  • Province_Western
    -4.2
  • worship_score_norm
    -1.7

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 2,307.8 L → after 2,307.8 L
Remove competitive drag-3.0 L / mo
base 2,307.8 L → after 2,304.8 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.