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OUT_16671

Eatery · Large · North-Western · distributor DIST_NW_01

Critical

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
624.4 L
Recent monthly avg
16.9 L
Own Q90
57.6 L
Active months
12 / 36
Coolers
4
Local competitors (1 km)
3
HHI (1.5 km)
5,662
Replenishment friction
16.7%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · cooler

    Add 5th cooler to outlet

    +324.8 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +324.8 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

  2. Rank 2 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +126.4 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~126.4 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Cooler_Count
    +321.0
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    +88.8
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +62.8
  • mass_share
    +13.6
  • super_premium_share
    +5.1

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -49.9
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -49.4
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -22.1
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    -15.8
  • monthly_volume_std
    -14.5

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+324.8 L / mo
base 632.2 L → after 957.0 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 632.2 L → after 632.2 L

Cooler deployment business case

Assumes LKR 50,000 unit cost, 12% gross margin, 12% cost of capital.

Monthly uplift
324.8 L
Monthly margin
LKR 9,281
Payback
5.4 mo
24-mo NPV
LKR 148,371

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.