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OUT_16572

Pharmacy · Small · North-Western · distributor DIST_NW_02

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
72.9 L
Recent monthly avg
31.6 L
Own Q90
85.3 L
Active months
22 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
1
HHI (1.5 km)
3,752
Replenishment friction
18.2%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +15.4 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~15.4 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Type_Pharmacy
    +1.1
  • Outlet_Type_SMMT
    +0.8
  • spatial_demand_score
    +0.8
  • avg_price_per_liter
    +0.7
  • territory_radius_m
    +0.6

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -62.3
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.6
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -25.0
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -23.5
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -21.3

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 76.9 L → after 76.9 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 76.9 L → after 76.9 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.