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OUT_16482

Kiosk · Large · North-Western · distributor DIST_NW_01

Critical

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
570.0 L
Recent monthly avg
14.1 L
Own Q90
35.6 L
Active months
16 / 36
Coolers
4
Local competitors (1 km)
1
HHI (1.5 km)
4,164
Replenishment friction
31.3%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · cooler

    Add 5th cooler to outlet

    +328.3 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +328.3 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

  2. Rank 2 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +112.7 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~112.7 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Cooler_Count
    +307.3
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    +79.0
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +60.8
  • super_premium_share
    +4.7
  • Outlet_Size_Medium
    +2.8

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -51.2
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -50.9
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -23.7
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    -16.9
  • monthly_volume_std
    -16.9

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+328.3 L / mo
base 563.4 L → after 891.7 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 563.4 L → after 563.4 L

Cooler deployment business case

Assumes LKR 50,000 unit cost, 12% gross margin, 12% cost of capital.

Monthly uplift
328.3 L
Monthly margin
LKR 11,113
Payback
4.5 mo
24-mo NPV
LKR 187,519

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.