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OUT_16239

Kiosk · Small · North-Western · distributor DIST_NW_01

Critical

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
79.8 L
Recent monthly avg
16.2 L
Own Q90
64.5 L
Active months
14 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
3
HHI (1.5 km)
4,029
Replenishment friction
14.3%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +15.3 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~15.3 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · sku_mix

    Shift SKU mix toward premium (stock 1-2 additional premium SKUs)

    +3.0 L / mo

    Outlet currently sells 5.2% premium SKUs vs top-performing peers in the same cohort at 11.7%. Closing this gap typically lifts volume by ~3.0 L/month.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_cv
    +3.3
  • Outlet_Type_Kiosk
    +1.7
  • spatial_demand_score
    +1.0
  • Outlet_Type_SMMT
    +0.8
  • avg_price_per_liter
    +0.7

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -62.7
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.5
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -24.5
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -23.0
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -21.0

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 76.3 L → after 76.3 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 76.3 L → after 76.3 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.