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OUT_16146

SMMT · Large · North-Western · distributor DIST_NW_01

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
716.8 L
Recent monthly avg
431.9 L
Own Q90
736.4 L
Active months
31 / 36
Coolers
5
Local competitors (1 km)
3
HHI (1.5 km)
3,825
Replenishment friction
16.1%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +145.7 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~145.6 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Cooler_Count
    +281.6
  • monthly_volume_mean
    +88.0
  • monthly_volume_q95
    +82.6
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    +63.4
  • monthly_volume_median
    +39.0

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -117.4
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    -24.1
  • mass_share
    -7.1
  • avg_price_per_liter
    -6.1
  • Latitude
    -5.8

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 728.2 L → after 728.2 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 728.2 L → after 728.2 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.