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OUT_16003

Pharmacy · Medium · North-Western · distributor DIST_NW_02

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
216.2 L
Recent monthly avg
102.2 L
Own Q90
261.2 L
Active months
23 / 36
Coolers
2
Local competitors (1 km)
2
HHI (1.5 km)
2,145
Replenishment friction
30.4%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · cooler

    Add 3th cooler to outlet

    +299.9 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +299.9 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

  2. Rank 2 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +45.3 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~45.3 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +35.2
  • Outlet_Size_Medium
    +16.6
  • monthly_volume_std
    +5.9
  • mass_share
    +2.4
  • mid_share
    +1.7

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -60.3
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.1
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -20.4
  • monthly_volume_median
    -15.6
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    -9.8

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+299.9 L / mo
base 226.3 L → after 526.2 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 226.3 L → after 226.3 L

Cooler deployment business case

Assumes LKR 50,000 unit cost, 12% gross margin, 12% cost of capital.

Monthly uplift
299.9 L
Monthly margin
LKR 8,814
Payback
5.7 mo
24-mo NPV
LKR 138,376

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.