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OUT_15822

SMMT · Small · North-Western · distributor DIST_NW_02

High

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
61.8 L
Recent monthly avg
14.4 L
Own Q90
40.7 L
Active months
18 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
0
HHI (1.5 km)
10,000
Replenishment friction
27.8%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +12.1 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~12.1 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • super_premium_share
    +1.2
  • Longitude
    +1.2
  • territory_radius_m
    +0.8
  • spatial_demand_score
    +0.6
  • hhi_1500m
    +0.6

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -61.8
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.6
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -25.3
  • monthly_volume_std
    -24.8
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -24.4

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 60.3 L → after 60.3 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 60.3 L → after 60.3 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.