OUT_15612
Bakery · Small · North-Western · distributor DIST_NW_02
Predicted potential
January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.
Geographical Location
Store location on the map.
Recommended actions
Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.
- Rank 1 · festival_promo+13.0 L / mo
Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak
Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~12.9 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.
- Rank 2 · sku_mix+3.6 L / mo
Shift SKU mix toward premium (stock 1-2 additional premium SKUs)
Outlet currently sells 4.4% premium SKUs vs top-performing peers in the same cohort at 13.5%. Closing this gap typically lifts volume by ~3.5 L/month.
Top reasons the score is high
Largest positive SHAP contributors.
- mass_share+1.9
- monthly_cv+1.2
- avg_price_per_liter+1.0
- Longitude+0.8
- Outlet_Type_SMMT+0.8
Top reasons the score is held back
Largest negative SHAP contributors.
- monthly_volume_mean-62.6
- Outlet_Size_Extra Large-28.9
- monthly_volume_q95-24.9
- Outlet_Size_Small-24.8
- monthly_volume_std-23.7
What-if scenarios
Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.
AI explanation
A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.
Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.