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OUT_15563

Bakery · Small · North-Western · distributor DIST_NW_01

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
57.0 L
Recent monthly avg
13.3 L
Own Q90
33.4 L
Active months
21 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
2
HHI (1.5 km)
4,000
Replenishment friction
19.0%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +12.8 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~12.8 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · cooler

    Place first cooler at outlet

    +0.0 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +0.0 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Outlet_Type_Bakery
    +3.6
  • footfall_score_norm
    +1.0
  • Outlet_Type_SMMT
    +0.8
  • worship_score_norm
    +0.7
  • Outlet_Type_Hotel
    +0.5

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -62.9
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.4
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -25.3
  • monthly_volume_std
    -23.8
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -23.8

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+0.0 L / mo
base 63.8 L → after 63.8 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 63.8 L → after 63.8 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.