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OUT_15142

Kiosk · Large · North-Western · distributor DIST_NW_02

Low

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
532.2 L
Recent monthly avg
19.5 L
Own Q90
61.4 L
Active months
22 / 36
Coolers
4
Local competitors (1 km)
1
HHI (1.5 km)
4,871
Replenishment friction
22.7%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · cooler

    Add 5th cooler to outlet

    +335.4 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +335.4 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

  2. Rank 2 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +108.2 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~108.2 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • Cooler_Count
    +300.9
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    +77.9
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    +60.3
  • Outlet_Size_Medium
    +2.7
  • spatial_demand_score
    +0.5

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -51.5
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -51.3
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -23.8
  • climate_jan_humid_pct
    -17.1
  • monthly_volume_std
    -16.5

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+335.4 L / mo
base 541.0 L → after 876.4 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 541.0 L → after 541.0 L

Cooler deployment business case

Assumes LKR 50,000 unit cost, 12% gross margin, 12% cost of capital.

Monthly uplift
335.4 L
Monthly margin
LKR 12,437
Payback
4.0 mo
24-mo NPV
LKR 215,816

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.