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OUT_15113

SMMT · Small · North-Western · distributor DIST_NW_02

Moderate

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
75.6 L
Recent monthly avg
26.1 L
Own Q90
85.3 L
Active months
19 / 36
Coolers
1
Local competitors (1 km)
0
HHI (1.5 km)
4,617
Replenishment friction
10.5%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +16.0 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~16.0 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

  2. Rank 2 · cooler

    Add 2th cooler to outlet

    +1.8 L / mo

    Counterfactual model predicts +1.8 L/month if cooler capacity is increased.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • super_premium_share
    +1.1
  • spatial_demand_score
    +0.9
  • territory_radius_m
    +0.7
  • Outlet_Type_Hotel
    +0.4
  • climate_jan_temp_c
    +0.3

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -61.4
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.7
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -24.3
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -23.8
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -21.9

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler+1.8 L / mo
base 79.8 L → after 81.6 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 79.8 L → after 79.8 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.