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OUT_14996

SMMT · Small · North-Western · distributor DIST_NW_01

Moderate

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
76.4 L
Recent monthly avg
21.2 L
Own Q90
71.7 L
Active months
20 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
3
HHI (1.5 km)
2,343
Replenishment friction
30.0%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +14.8 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~14.7 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • mid_share
    +3.0
  • mass_share
    +2.0
  • avg_price_per_liter
    +0.8
  • spatial_demand_score
    +0.7
  • Longitude
    +0.7

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -61.4
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -29.5
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -25.6
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -25.3
  • Outlet_Size_Large
    -23.0

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 73.7 L → after 73.7 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 73.7 L → after 73.7 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.