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OUT_14824

Bakery · Small · North-Western · distributor DIST_NW_02

Critical

Predicted potential

January 2026 if systemic constraints were relieved.

Predicted Jan 2026
64.8 L
Recent monthly avg
12.0 L
Own Q90
36.1 L
Active months
14 / 36
Coolers
0
Local competitors (1 km)
2
HHI (1.5 km)
4,819
Replenishment friction
35.7%

Geographical Location

Store location on the map.

Recommended actions

Top-3 prescriptive interventions ranked by expected monthly L uplift.

  1. Rank 1 · festival_promo

    Schedule promotional push for Christmas + New Year peak

    +13.0 L / mo

    Historical seasonality and Sri Lanka demand calendar imply ~12.9 L/month additional volume during Christmas + New Year peak if outlet is featured in the campaign.

Top reasons the score is high

Largest positive SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_cv
    +1.6
  • super_premium_share
    +0.9
  • Outlet_Type_SMMT
    +0.8
  • hhi_1500m
    +0.7
  • Outlet_Type_Hotel
    +0.6

Top reasons the score is held back

Largest negative SHAP contributors.

  • monthly_volume_mean
    -63.1
  • Outlet_Size_Extra Large
    -28.3
  • monthly_volume_q95
    -24.9
  • monthly_volume_std
    -24.5
  • Outlet_Size_Small
    -23.8

What-if scenarios

Model-predicted deltas if a constraint were relieved.

Add one cooler0.0 L / mo
base 64.7 L → after 64.7 L
Remove competitive drag0.0 L / mo
base 64.7 L → after 64.7 L

AI explanation

A Gemini-generated, business-friendly summary of why this outlet received its score and what the sales team should consider next.

Click Explain this outlet to ask Gemini 2.5 Flash for a plain-English explanation grounded in the SHAP drivers, the counterfactuals, and the recommended actions for this outlet.